Monday, 5 October 2015

Virgil holds CB 122.63: The above data shows us that AFL has the most gains from fair value measurement, most foreign (Japan) and corporate securities and the highest level of securities due in more than 10 years.

In the following table you can see more data that I used for the analysis followed by a comparison of the companies. I do not dare to imagine what effect an increase in government interest rates would have on the book values of those companies, especially when a great proportion of their investments is held at fair value and not to maturity for the long term. The reason behind the fall in book value per share in the last two quarters should be the increasing interest rates in the corporate world as the CEO of ACE mentioned in his Q2 earnings call. A number above 1 means that book value has increased more that earnings and below 1 less then earnings. You can see the calculation of the change in book value in relation to previous year EPS minus dividend in the yellow line in the table.


Geri:
Revenues have grown in a relatively stable manner except for AWH, again.

Mahalia:
EPS for Q2 2015 fell to $0.10 from $1.55 in Q2 2014. The reasons behind the big fall according to management are unexpected catastrophe losses and some mark-to-market losses.

Darnell:
Revenues from Japan are 68% and while the rest is mostly from the US.

Anna:
CB's dividend yield is currently at 2.28% and its dividend has been increasing for the last 30 years.

Mildred:
On the other hand, the current dividend yield is 2.61% and the dividend has been increasing for the last 20 years.

Arnetta:
Book value in the last two quarters fell for ACE due to the rise in interest rates on their corporate bond portfolio.

Chin:
What I do not like about the acquisition is that ACE is paying 50% of it in cash because if ACE would pay everything in stocks then there would be no extra benefit to CB's shareholders from the possibility that we are at the peak of an underwriting cycle.

Winifred:
ACE is expecting that the acquisition will be accretive to the company's EPS and book value immediately and by a double digit basis in three years plus they expect goodwill to be paid back in approximately 5.5 years.

Maud:
The payment will be made 50% in shares and 50% in cash and the resulting pro forma ownership will be 70% ACE and 30% CB.

Lyndsay:
ACE is paying a 30% premium based on CB's closing price on the date of the acquisition announcement.

Chubb Corp. (NYSE:CB)
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