Saturday, 26 September 2015

Noelia sells DRQ 61.44: In particular, it sounds as though the significant advances made in equipment uptime (reportedly in the high 90%'s with Cameron equipment versus the 80%'s or lower with rivals) are helping drive share gains.

CAMSHALE is gaining share in areas like frac trees and wellheads, and FMC and GE are finding themselves faced with a competitor with some meaningful momentum built on new product development. Given FMC's strong growth there in recent years, that's likely more of a net negative for it than Cameron, but time will tell. The company has booked some solid awards (like the recent Shah Deniz Two), but management is looking for subsea tree orders to be more or less flat for the next three years. What happens after that is more of a mystery. The primary reason that Cameron's orders dropped so much relative to GE (where orders were down 11% on an organic basis) is the company's much greater leverage to drilling equipment, valves, and to a lesser extent surface equipment.


Lorinda:
Operating income still declined, down 13% yoy and down 7%, but it was a little better than expected (by about 4%) and all of the segments posted double-digit margins.

Deanna:
One of the big items on management's to-do list was to fix its operating cost structure and it has delivered, as improved order flow and execution have smoothed out the work flow and achieved a better operating balance.

Dominique:
Drilling declined less than expected (down 6%/down 1%) while valves declined significantly (down 29%/down 11) but no worse than expected.

Mana:
Surface was down 17% and 6%, respectively, but better than expected and good for ongoing share gains in areas like frac stacks.

Krishna:
Subsea revenue fell 10% yoy, but rose 4% sequentially.

Lucia:
Revenue fell 14% from the year-ago level and 2% from the prior quarter, but that was still a bit better than the Street had projected.

Sang:
I do believe that the next couple of years will be difficult in markets like drilling equipment, but modeling this as a three to four year recovery story still suggests upside toward $60 per share.

Olimpia:
If you believe the major service companies that activity levels have bottomed in the North American onshore market and that the offshore markets will come back in another two or three years, Cameron should do well.

Gisele:
Whether or not Cameron is a good stock to consider today depends in large part on your outlook for the energy sector.

Cordie:
Based upon free cash flow and EBITDA, CAM should trade closer to the mid-to-high $50s.

Dril-Quip (NYSE:DRQ)
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