Thursday, 1 October 2015

Eliza sells DEPO 18.85: The first is to remove current DEPO directors and repeal various amendments to the bylaws.

The DC PSC previously rejected the deal. Down to about $6 per share, can INAP get a premium bid? The 200-day and 50-day moving averages have moved 0.88% higher and 2.19% lower over the past week, respectively. The bottom line is whether DEPO executes its standalone plan or a strategic acquirer makes a compelling offer, shareholders seem likely to do well at today's prices. Management has been clear that it is willing to sell the company if the offer makes sense and the price exceeds standalone value, and its history suggests it means it: several of the companies the CEO has previously worked at have been acquired.


Imogene:
With 75% gross margins, Nucynta alone could easily be doing $250m in pre-tax FCF by the end of the decade and over $500m before its patent protection expires.

Jacquline:
Management has suggested Nucynta should ramp to over $500m in sales by the end of the decade, with $1B a target before patent expiration.

Kaleigh:
Each of these drugs has patent expirations out through 2022 to 2024 and gross margins of 90%, so the combination of them could easily be delivering well over $100m a year in pre-tax cash flow (and growing) within the next two years.

Emelina:
Gralise is growing 20% per year and is on pace to do more than $100m in revenue in 2016 while Lazanda, Zipsor, and Cambia should all do over $25m in revenue.

Aurora:
Even ignoring potential value from acquisitions, the company is undervalued based on its current portfolio.

Becki:
Management has proven over the past five years that it can create value by buying small products, putting them on its sales platform, and increasing sales, and it intends to continue acquiring products going forward.

Teena:
And we believe that standalone value could be significant.

Melani:
The combination of those two factors alone would likely have sent DEPO's shares up more than 10%, so it would be fair to say that at current prices HZNP's 0.95 share bid would give DEPO no premium from its standalone, unaffected value.

Vernell:
However, the offer is not a cash offer - HZNP has made clear that it doesn't want to do an all cash offer so that it can have more cash for future acquisitions.

Shea:
Horizon likes to say the offer is for $33 per share.

Depomed (NASDAQ:DEPO)
//stockhand.net/us/?q=nasdaq%3Adepo&id=654182

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